Saturday, 27 May 2017

House prices - an example of higher order thinking

Here in the UK, we have a cultural obsession with house prices. Occasionally, the public start discussing the same topic. In this example it is affordable housing. A few 'think tanks' notice this concern. Very highly specialised lobbyists will present this to the Prime Minister with a 'solution'.

This is just how our society works. It just does.

The Prime Minister issues a public statement. They 'promise' affordable housing. They detail the plans. A first order analysis / the man in the pub / a low level banker at a dinner party, all decide the government are making it far easier for first time buyers. Then they reminisce about double digit interest rates and that nobody helped them.

Now let us give this some further, deeper thought: a second order analysis.

Were the government advised to create new social housing? Remembering that 2/3 the price of most new houses is for the land. These new homes could be sold or rented at less than half the price of similar properties. No, this idea was never born. The special interest lobbyists clearly did not want to initiate a plan that would provide affordable housing.

What the UK did get was various 'help to buy' schemes. This plan merely benefits the sellers, as house prices actually go up. Or at least, do not correct downwards.

To summarise, the chattering classes and man in the pub can agree that housing is now more affordable despite the fact that prices have increased.

A third order analysis reveals that this was the intended consequence from the lobbyists point of view. An unintended consequence, from the governments point of view. The publics view is that housing is now more affordable, regardless of reality.

Note how easily the publics will is seen to be organising and how easily it is misdirected?

Thus the rules for this particular game are set. As soon as public will starts to firm up about affordable housing, then a new plan will be rolled out based upon lowering mortgage payments for first time buyers to sustain or increase actual house prices.

The specialist lobbyists will keep this game going for as long as their clients continue to profit from it. In theory, standard mortgages could become 100 years with 0.5% interest only payments. Affordability is maintained but house prices could easily quadruple.

At some point, first time buyers will no longer be suitably incentivised to take on such huge mortgages.

Currently, the public believe that house prices always increase. There may be periods where they fall a little but in time prices bounce back. There may also be periods of stagnation. This is not considered to be significant, over the long term prices are always going to increase. Well, that is exactly what the specialist lobbyists clients want us to believe.

Should the publics confidence in ever increasing house prices ever fail, what would happen? Lots of very credible people will write and say that house prices are set to increase because of blah blah blah. Most of the time this is enough. If the public believes house prices will rise, then few people will enjoy selling under 'market' value. People will buy sooner, rather than later and house prices will rise.

What happens when our belief in ever increasing house prices falters? Simple, prices will drop. Slowly at first, then nose bleedingly fast. Then, after a small delay, we get the first wave of defaults. Then much bigger waves. Have no fear, the specialist lobbyists will have a raft of solutions all involving tax payer money. The clients of the lobbyists will retain their control of our wealth. Ultimately, interest rates will go double digit due to massive numbers of defaults on existing mortgages making the issuance of mortgages incredibly risky. All first order truths.

Higher level analysis reveals a truly unbelievable truth. The lobbyists clients already understand all this. Vast amounts of public wealth is spent on controlling public opinion. The BBC is not an unbiased news source. It is a purveyor of the world's finest propaganda. The government is seen as powerful but must always dissipate the publics will or risk being seen as irrelevant. Bankers employ the best lobbyists that money can buy otherwise their harnessing of mankind's productive output could be lost.

Can I prove any of this?
Imagine that the great british public decide that mortgages are no longer acceptable. All houses are to be paid for without borrowing. Would we expect house prices to go up or to crash down to earth? Obviously, they crash but what would make us all decide never to borrow money for a home?

The few already know what would cause such a widespread belief to arise. Acknowledgement of one simple truth would stop 98% of people ever borrowing money again. This truth is so simple that the human brain struggles to accept it.

High order evaluation of the following truth will be required before enlightenment.

Banks lend bank credit which they create at (close to) zero cost.

For example, I go into a bank to borrow 150,000 bank credits against a house priced at 180,000 pounds. Paperwork is filled and I give my signature. Over the next 25 years I pay back the 150,000 bank credits that the bank created at zero cost. The bank gets to spend or invest the interest payments however it likes. Some goes to specialist lobbyists to ensure the wealth skimming continues.

Banks do provide a public service. The public should own the banks. Creating bank credits is virtually costless. Banks should be public owned and the wealth they skim be spent locally. Not controlled by the few.

Banks should not be allowed to own businesses, or property or shares. Private banks should not exist. Banks should create bank credit to serve humanity. Not enslave it.

Public will and public money is manipulated by the few at the expense of the many. The basic tool of the few is the control of the issuance of bank credit and the subsequent control of the vast wealth that this takes from us.

Anyway, how many of us are capable of higher order thought?
Far more if we stopped ingesting fluoride, aspartame and other 'safe' chemical monstrosities.

Please discuss this nonsense amongst yourselves. 98% of you are capable of higher level thought. Help yourself by eating high quality foods, perhaps grow your own and drink high quality water. Perhaps by distilling tap water. Give it two years because we deserve better, much better because we are better. We simply are.

P.S. You might assume that I consider banks and / or the government to be the 'bad guys'. Or perhaps the lobbyists?

No, no and no. To get a clear view of the 'bad guy' simply stand in front of a mirror. There you will see your own worst enemy. Or, you might glimpse an enlightened mindful being.

There are those who will use your own ignorance of reality against you. The natural remedy for this is a Mindful Enlightenment.

I write three blogs and have written three books, all to help me to walk the path towards becoming Enlightened. Hopefully, you will at least find some part of them, interesting, as I have no desire to waste your time.

The status quo - higher order thinking

Many believe that the next twenty or even forty years will mirror the last twenty or forty years. Economists and politicians are almost fanatical in their beliefs. These beliefs are merely wishful thinking. Since 1970 our standards of living have increased. We can thank Engineers for their massive contributions but most of the benefits have been consumed by government.

In this modern age men are expected to work forty hours a week for fifty years. This is not necessary. Each year, productivity is expected to increase. Again, this is not necessary. It is truly bizarre. Massive government requires this ever increasing effort to simply survive. As I wrote moments ago, this is truly bizarre.

Government has taken the credit for fifty years of technological advancement. It has also taken a vast amount of our wealth. Our standard of living ought to be far in excess of what it is. Government waste has destroyed most of our technological gains.

Governments think in very simple terms. They react with low order solutions to very high order problems. High order thought is not taught in schools or acknowledged in universities or government. In practical terms, lack of high order thought of solutions births unintended consequences. Those who are capable of higher order thinking see the unintended consequences as the true purpose of the original 'solutions'.

The basic idea that this post is attempting to illuminate is that the world view of most politicians, economists and the man in the street is simply wrong.

Our wealth, our standards of living are being crushed by people who truly believe that they can organise the lives of millions of people better than the people themselves.

Utter nonsense. A politician making decisions for sixty million people is an obscene joke. Trump making decisions for 339 million people is truly absurd. If a man makes a mistake, he is forced to accept the consequences. A politician, is not forced to accept anything. Utterly bizarre.

The point of this post is to illuminate the fact that politicians are intellectual children playing with the lives of millions of adults. Why do you believe that politicians are not deluded idiots when you know that they are?

Vote for yourself. Think for yourself. Accept responsibility for yourself.

Saturday, 20 May 2017

Law and Order

Welcome to my thoughts on Law and Order. In this short article I will explain the reality of what we do have and the possibility of something orders of magnitude better.

We have a society that diverts a substantial portion of wealth towards law and order. We collectively believe this is necessary otherwise we have anarchy and chaos. Our system of law and order is hierarchical and bureaucratic. This appeals to the most ancient parts of our brains. The law is the law. Rules are rules. Everybody gets treated the same.

We are all conditioned to believe that law and order is the same as justice. This is the same conditioning that has us confusing society with civilisation.

Should you ever go to court, as a mindful being, you will rapidly recognise that your opinion counts for nothing. Written contracts and the rule of law mean everything. A decent lawyer will listen to you but the case he presents is a much simpler version keyed to fit within the basic system of rules that the court acknowledges. This is law and order within a society.

A few thousands of years ago in an actual civilisation, a farmer had a reputation for resolving disputes. In the morning, whilst ploughing or some such like, he would listen to each parties disagreement. First one and then the other. In the afternoon, after lunch, he would give his opinion on the dispute and fully explain what he thought would be a fair outcome. Over a period of fifty years, no one ever appealed his decisions. That dear readers, is justice dispensed by a mindful being. The cost of this service was nothing. The farmers opinion was not upheld with force. Either party could choose to ignore him. No one ever did.

Not exactly anarchy and chaos is it?

You may be fearful that not enough people could do what the farmer did. Become a mindful being and you could do it yourself.

Now, which system would you prefer? A free one where you are listened to. An expensive one where a vast but simple set of rules is adhered to? (With someone else deciding which rules are relevant and conveniently ignoring the rest.)

Give the above some serious thought before you start worrying, unnecessarily, about prisons and criminals. That is merely your basic conditioning causing you to feel fearful yet again. Realising this, you will start to understand exactly how much you have been manipulated, conditioned and influenced by our society. The correct description for this is institutionalisation on a societal scale.

No need to feel embarrassed or threatened, just smile and take some deep breaths.

Saturday, 6 May 2017

Why, when and how? UPDATE 1.1

Society and civilisation are not the same thing.

In a society, we have central banks and central governments. Each growing ever more powerful, as each individual grows weaker and weaker.

In a civilisation, each organisation exists only to serve people. People are free to join, create or leave an organisation as they choose. Organisations can be ignored.

In a society, demands are made by the few which the many feel forced to comply with.

In a civilisation, demands are seen to be bizarre outbursts of the emotionally unstable.

This difference is crucial. With societies, you tend towards creating the unsustainable. This unsustainability is unavoidable. The few make promises that are widely believed. Thus we give them our power. However, the promises prove impossible to keep.  The unsustainable is sustained but at increasing cost. Eventually, we get a self destructive reset.

Societies are based on fear. A simple reflection of our inner monkey. With civilisations you get art, science, creativity, personal responsibility, accountability and this is what our human souls need to thrive.

Why is this difference important?
Our current society is heavily dependent upon the ancient 'monkey' portions of our selves. Hence the form and function of our society is control through hierarchical means. Which appeals to our inner monkey. This has a number of advantages and disadvantages. The main disadvantage is that in time, the societal systems become increasingly brittle until they shatter. This is due to simple logic, as fewer and fewer people control more and more, their mistakes are amplified. Each major mistake requiring more and more power to correct. Wielding such power, without being a God, usually causes the sweet spot to be overshot. Ever more power and control over the population is required. This utter waste of resources simply increases over time, until society collapses, as it can no longer match the increasing costs with increasing productivity.

When will our society collapse?
Timing is everything. I cannot predict when Western society will collapse. Predicting when, is predicting the future. I cannot do that. We all are able to see where we are headed, should we care to. The 2008 global financial crisis was a tremor, the earthquake has not happened yet.

How will our society collapse?
Interesting question. There are a great many ways that our society can shatter itself. Another massively destructive world war resets our society. Which is completely pointless but we have done it twice now so a third world war isn't beyond imagination. A societal reset is what we get unless we choose to do something else. In other words, world war three is the default answer. Anything else will require some thought. Some basic awareness of self. An acknowledgement of the increasing demands of society.

However, we do have a choice. We can chose to accept that our society is the result of not correctly training our inner monkey. We can then slowly dissolve society and each of us contribute towards building a civilisation.

This obviously means reading my three books and practising mindful behaviours. :-)

Why should you bother?
A human being, free of the fears of its inner monkey is a beautiful, creative, peaceful and productive member of a human civilisation.

A human being, enslaved by the imagined fears of its out of control inner monkey is just a normal member of society. Many will gladly take any offered drug to help ease the pain of not being what they were born to be - a Mindful Being. Many of us will force our own children to take drugs, just to cope with our societies idea of an education. A child will quite naturally seek an education, a civilised education.

Another big reason is that when society shatters, the damage will be beyond my imagination. Far easier to read my Trilogy and allow society to dissolve slowly and create a civilisation at our own pace.

What is actually happening?
Both. For centuries. Most of Mankind has used its energies to maintain a status quo, that benefits a few at the expense of the many rather than bothering with developing themselves, to benefit themselves and everybody else. The ancient Greeks did have a civilisation, we simply don't even know that we don't have an actual civilisation.

Society is all about what you own / control. (The few controlling more and more.)

Civilisation is all about what you share / give. (Whilst creating more and more.)

One is a pointless waste of life, destroying countless human souls.

The other is the reason for life itself. The reason we are here. The reason I write.

The new civilisation has been here for millennia, when will it dawn on you to join it?